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Showing posts from March, 2022

From a Miocene-like CO2 level of ~420 ppm to irreversible climate change

by Andrew Glikson As terrestrial adversaries keep pushing the Earth and its inhabitants to within seconds of a nuclear catastrophe, looming through heat waves, extreme fires and flood events is the huge calamity of irreversible global warming. [ from earlier post ] Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached levels well above 420 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 13 and 14, 2022, as illustrated by the image, from an earlier post . The image below, adapted from  NOAA , shows CO₂ and other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) rising from 280 ppm CO₂e in 1700 to 504 ppm CO₂e in 2021. This figure of 504 ppm CO₂e could be much higher when applying a short horizon to calculate methane's Global Warming Potential.  CO₂ levels have been rising from ~315 ppm in 1950 to ~419 ppm in 2022, at an average growth rate of some 1.44 ppm/year accelerating to about 2.5 ppm/year recently.  The rate of this CO₂ rise is unprecedented in the Cenozoic (since 65 Ma) recor

Signs of the rise to come

Arctic sea ice extent has fallen strongly over the past few weeks and looks set to keep falling rapidly over the next few months.  Ocean heat is at record levels, as illustrated by the image below and as discussed in an earlier post .  The image below shows the temperature at the North Pole reaching 0.7°C or 33.3°F (at 1000 hPa, at the green circle) on March 16, 2022, with ocean currents depicted at the background. How could the temperature at the North Pole get this high, in March?  As said, ocean heat is at record levels. This is heating up the air over the Atlantic Ocean. At times, huge amounts of heat are getting pushed into the Arctic due to a distorted Jet Stream. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream on the Northern Hemisphere on March 16, 2022, with strong winds at 250 hPa pushing heat from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic. Furthermore, the Gulf Stream is pushing huge amounts of ocean heat toward the Arctic.  The image below shows that sea surface temperatures were

Marina Ovsyannikova Interrogated for 14 Hours

Russian Journalist Marina Ovsyannikova has been released after being interrogated for 14 hours without a lawyer, for two consecutive sleepless nights, and after paying a fine of €250.  She was detained for disrupting a major Russian TV news programme with a placard that read "Stop the war, don't believe the propaganda, they're lying to you", BBC News reports. Previously, she had recorded a video with a statement explaining her protest, which can be seen below, thanks to The Guardian . Some interesting words you can find in this story are: to be fined, to be released, a live TV news programme, the set, to plead not guilty, a charge, to call on [the Russian people] to protest, to be prosecuted, to ban, the court hearing, to be denied access [to a lawyer], to stress, to come up with an idea, the courthouse, her whereabouts, the placard, to be ashamed, the television screen, this inhumane regime, a blog run by former BBC journalist, to praise her for telling the truth, to

Methane rise is accelerating

NOAA's globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane reading for November 2021 of 1909.3 parts per billion (ppb) is 17.6 ppb higher than the reading for November 2020. By comparison, NOAA's  annual global mean methane increase  of 15.57 ppb for 2020 was at the time the highest on record. Keep in mind that this 1909.3 ppb reading is for November 2021; it now is March 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes. The image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1936 ppb at 321 mb on March 7, 2022 pm. Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide levels are currently very high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below that shows carbon dioxide levels approaching 430 parts per million (ppm) recently at Barrow, Alaska.  Clouds tipping point [ from earlier post ] The danger is that high greenhouse gas levels could combine to push the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) l

What I saw in the war

  A lesson based on Janine di Giovanni's TED talk Image source: TED.com [Fair use] I came across this talk, which is shorter than usual TED talks, while looking for some materials on the topic of war and conflict - in view of the current events. The reactions from the students I've showed it to this week have been: "touching", "impressive" and "outstanding". I've made two versions of this activity for different levels - just like with my news quizzes . At both levels, the activity starts with pre-teaching key vocabulary. Although it's debatable whether pre-teaching vocabulary before listening is beneficial, I found it helpful with this particular video. You will see that the higher level version also has a follow-up activity for the vocabulary that was 'pre-taught'. If you are surprised at the conspicuous absence of other pre-listening activities, such as prediction or activating background knowledge, I felt that the events in Ukra

What the IPCC impacts report is hiding

[ click on images to enlarge ] Above image is adapted from content by IPCC AR6 WGII and Peter Carter , expert IPCC reviewer and director of the Climate Emergency Institute .  The IPCC keeps hiding how much the temperature could already have risen and could rise over the next few years, the associated dangers, and the policies that could most effectively improve the situation.  1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded One of the first issues that springs to mind is the IPCC's use of 1850-1900 as a baseline, which isn't pre-industrial as the Paris Agreement called for. Above image, adapted from a NASA image, shows a January 2022 temperature rise of 1.31°C versus 1885-1915. As the box underneath indicates, a further 0.1°C could be added for ocean air temperatures and another 0.1°C for higher polar anomalies. When calculating the temperature rise from pre-industrial , a further 0.79°C could be added for the period from 3480 BC to 1900, resulting in a tot