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An important implication of the recent post on how to avoid bad trading decisions is that it is not enough to plan trades, write in a journal, or review performance.  If we make decisions in cognitive, emotional, and physical states that are different from the ones we occupied during our preparation, we're likely to find that the decisions we plan won't always be the ones we act upon. Experienced traders don't just create a plan for a trade; they often plan a variety of possible scenarios for their positions based upon how markets behave, news that comes out, central bank decisions, etc. By anticipating a variety of events, these traders enable themselves to respond quickly in the face of surprise. This mental preparation is most effective if it is also emotional preparation.  In other words, we want to not only anticipate a scenario, but also the thoughts, feelings, and physical states likely to accompany that scenario.  If a market is topping, for instance, and my short

The third person singular of the Present Simple tense is known to be particularly problematic for learners and when the "Be Like Bill" meme took social media by storm last week, I thought that it presents a wonderful opportunity to practise the problematic structure. Background If you don't know Be Like Bill, it works something like this: you see in your feed an image one of your Facebook friends has posted which looks like this. You click on the image and after being redirected to the meme generator, you enter your name and gender, and the app generates a similar nonsensical story about you which always ends with " (Mike / Jane / Leo / Farouk ) is smart. Be like (Mike / Jane / Leo / Farouk) " and has a stick figure sporting a bobble hat. But what if you could get your students write their own "memes"? Activity Level: Elementary - Pre-intermediate (A2) Focus: Writing Aim: Practise affirmative and negative sentences in the Present Simple - 3rd person

The recent post on burnout emphasized an important--but often unrecognized--point: We derive energy not just from the state we're in, but from shifts in our physical, emotional, and cognitive states.  Too much exercise; too much concentration; too much rest and we become fatigued: we lose energy.  Variety in our states enables us to be serious and to have fun, to be active and to have moments of quiescence.  When life becomes too routine, we paint ourselves into a psychological corner in which we occupy only a fraction of the healthy, vital states available to us. Why is this important to trading?   What we know--and therefore what we can act upon--is in part a function of our state of mind.  We recall something important in one mindstate; we become distracted and forget it in another mode.  We study diligently for a test--and then can forget it all if we become test-anxious.  We know our trading rules and are committed to them when we're focused--and then we abandon all disci

Friday, January 29th *  Easy to get burned out sitting in front of screens all day and trying to stay disciplined.  Here is an important antidote to burnout . *  I've been offline for a couple of days, swamped with coaching work with traders.  Whenever that happens, it's a sure sign that markets are tricky and people are having trouble making money.  We had a real risk off start to the year, with oil, stocks, and emerging markets lower and firmness in the U.S. dollar.  Late last week we saw a sharp rebound and these posts talked about having put in a momentum low for this market cycle.  Evidence was also suggesting that this cycle was not like ones we had seen in 2014 and 2015, with far more persistence of weakness in stocks.  This week we have generally continued the bounce, but in a highly choppy fashion, making it difficult to make money from either the bull or bear side.  Hence the recent frustration of traders. *  A momentum low implies the possibility that further price l

Permainan GTA ini sangat mirip dengan film naruto , anda akan merasakan suasana asli di kota naruto dan anda menjadi naruto , semuanya seperti di film naruto , seperti lari ninja , loncat ninja , berjalan di air , menempel di dinding dan juga serangan seperti naruto. GTA game is very similar to the movie naruto, you will feel the atmosphere of the originaltown of naruto and naruto, you

GA ROMANTIS By : LYLA [intro] G Em C Em G D G Em Tak pernah ku memberi mawar merah C D Atau sebait puisi yang indah G Em C Ku lihat perlahan kau mulai gerah Em G D Ku takut kau jadikan ku sejarah Em C Bila kau marah janganlah engkau pergi G D Tetaplah di sini dengarkan ku bernyanyi [chorus] C G Aku nggak mau jadi mataharimu Em D Karena itu akan membuatku jauh C G Aku nggak mau jadi bintang bintangmu Em D Walau indah itu juga kan jauh C G Yang aku mau menjadi udaramu Em D Selalu setia tiap hela nafasmu C G aku nggak romantis maaf aku nggak romantis Em maaf aku nggak romantis D ma

Dale Carnegie was right; many times it's not our work that runs us down, but our emotional responses to the work.  Fear and greed often get first billing in discussions of traders' emotions, but it's frustration that I encounter most commonly.  Traders become frustrated when they feel they miss moves; they become frustrated with losses; they become frustrated if they make money and feel they should have made more.  This is why changing the dynamics behind frustration is the single greatest psychological improvement traders can make .   To be sure, frustration can serve as a motivator.  After all, we become frustrated when our desires and goals are thwarted.  Learning from what is holding us back can give us the motivation to overcome those obstacles and ultimately succeed. We can't channel frustration constructively, however, unless we're first aware of the frustration.  It is the mindful awareness of frustration than enables us to pull back, assess the situation, a

Well, it's a snowy Saturday in the next station to heaven , so Mia and I are listening to love songs and going back to school.  There's no better formula for a full life than to live meaningfully and learn constantly.  That way, you're always growing: in your heart and in your head. Going back to school is an exercise I return to periodically that keeps me fresh as a trader.  It's really a return to the process by which I learned trading.  For well over a year, at the end of the day I printed out charts of the market (price/volume) and charts of every indicator that I believed could have value in anticipating market moves.  I knew that, for any limited period of time, indicators could randomly appear to have value.  Over the course of weeks and months, however, patterns recurred that helped me focus on the measures that added true value.  It was through those initial explorations that I discovered trading patterns in NYSE TICK (upticks/downticks among all NYSE stocks)

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Friday, January 22nd *  Yesterday's post noted the possibility that we had put in a momentum low for the recent market cycle.  Price action on Thursday was supportive of that hypothesis, as we saw very significant selling pressure in the afternoon, with multiple NYSE TICK readings below -1000.  That was similar in selling intensity to the puking we saw at the price lows, but now we were holding higher in price.  The market's ability to make higher price lows and higher highs is what we look for if we've indeed put in a momentum low.  Meanwhile, we've moved higher overnight, again consistent with the momentum low notion.  (Note the recent significant strength in oil prices, as well).  Bottom line is that, short-term, we appear to be transitioning from a "sell the bounce" to a "buy the weakness" mode.  *  Here's a nice view of breadth among SPX stocks, which tracks the number of stocks making 5, 20, and 100-day new highs vs. lows.  Note how we'

Here is a coaching exercise that can make a meaningful difference in your trading: At the end of the day or week (depending on your frequency of trading), identify your best trade and your worst trade.  Then dissect each one: *  How did you prepare personally during the time leading up to your best trade?  Your worst trade?  What was your state of mind?  Your physical state?   *  How did you research the idea that went into your best trade?  Your worst trade?  What information did you rely upon?  What information did you disregard?  What was your edge going into the trade? *  How did you enter and size your best trade?  Your worst trade?  How did you manage the position while it was on?  What information did you process and rely upon during the trade to add to the position, scale out, or stay in the position? *  What was your state of mind while the trade was on?  What were you doing during the life of the trade? *  How did you exit your best trade?  Your worst trade?  What information

Yesterday's post on how to renew yourself after a challenging market week is an important one.  It's easy to become so caught up in short-term market action that we fail to pace ourselves through the market year.  Many times we make poor decisions, not because we lack effort or discipline, but simply because we've depleted our resources and no longer have the concentration and energy level to properly identify and pursue opportunity. A measure of a trader's wisdom and experience is the amount of thought they put into money management.  I've emphasized in the past that you should never lose so much in one trade that you cannot be profitable on the day.  Similarly, you should not lose so much in a day or week that you can't be profitable on the week or month.  You will always lose money, you will always have losing trades, you will always have drawdowns, and you will always have periods in which you're out of sync with markets.  Good money management allows y

To say it's been an eventful start to the new year is quite the understatement.  As I've chronicled in the market updates, there is every indication that 2016 is a different from recent years.  There is greater volatility, and oversold levels that had led to bounces in the recent past have not been able to find buyers.  With the increased directional movement and potential opportunity set, you would think this would be a wonderful psychological environment for traders.  Oddly, however, I've been hearing more about fatigue and frustration than fortune and fulfillment. Two factors seem to be responsible for the negative emotionality: 1)  Slowness to Adapt - I heard it at $50 and I heard it at $40 and I'm hearing it with the break of $30:  oil prices are going to rebound.  I've also heard quite a bit of "We're overdue for a bounce."  Just recently, the Fed deemed the economy to be sufficiently robust to raise interest rates.  How could we now be crashing

SINGLE By : D'MASIV [intro] A E D 2x A E D hidup tak semulus yang kubayangkan A E D ada sedihnya dan ada juga tertawa A E D terlalu berharap buat hatiku tak tenang A E D apalagi kalau rasa ini tak berbalas C#m D kadang aku lupa F#m E C#m D aku punya sahabat dan keluarga F#m E yang membuatku bahagia [chorus] D F#m aku yakin suatu saat nanti A E cinta kan berlabuh di tempat yang tepat D F#m ku percaya setiap insan di dunia A E diciptakan Tuhan berpasang-pasangan D F#m E D F#m E cinta tak kan pernah salah D F#m E D F#m E A cinta tak kan pernah salah A E D bidadari datang dalam hidupku A E D hari-hariku menjadi lebih indah A E D ku jadi mudah terseny

GENERASI By : ONCE MEKEL [intro] F F C Kamu bahagia mengenal diriku Dm A# Sama seperti aku bahagia mengenalmu F C Tidak masalah berbeda dan ragu Dm A# Kamu dan aku sama-sama mencari tau Am C A# Ke mana kita kan melangkah Am C A# Menemukan apa dan berbuat apa [chorus] F Gm Dm A# Kita generasi yang penuh harapan F Gm Dm A# Yang selalu mencari ingin merasakan F Gm Dm A# dahsyatnya dunia yang sebenarnya F Gm Dm A# dunianya kita [int] F F C Kamu rasakan aku pun rasakan Dm A# Apa yang sangat menjadi pertanyaan kita F C Genggam tanganku menggapai mimpi Dm A# Kamu dan aku sama-sama mencari tau Am C A# Ke mana kita kan melangkah Am C A# Menemukan apa dan berbuat apa [chorus] F Gm Dm A# Kita

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TAK BISA MENCINTAIMU By : SAMMY SIMORANGKIR [intro] C G/B Am G F 2x C F Cinta yang telah ku berikan padamu C F Cinta yang tulus untukmu C F Telah ku relakan semua keinginanmu Am G F Tapi kau tak pernah mengerti Em Dm Telah ku coba tuk mengerti kamu Em F G Tapi ternyata kau khianatiku [chorus] F G Maafkanlah aku ku coba lupakan Em Am Semua yang pernah kita lewati F G Bukan karena aku tak mencintaimu Em Am Karena aku tak pantas bagimu G F G C Pergilah kau cinta sejatiku C F Telah ku relakan semua keinginanmu Am G F Tapi kau tak pernah mengerti Dm Em F Telah ku coba tuk mengerti kamu Dm Em F G A Tapi ternyata kau khianatiku [chorus] G A/G Maafkanlah aku ku co

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Friday, January 15th *  Thursday's rally was short-lived, and that has been the outstanding feature of the recent downturn in the stock market.  As noted in the prior posting (below), we have stayed oversold for far longer than has been typical of corrections in 2014 and 2015.  The weakness in oil continued overnight and we've broken to new lows for the move following the data release this morning.  Selling bounces that roll over at lower price highs continues to be the winning strategy. *  The chart below of one of my primary cycle measures is worth a thousand words.  Quite simply, this is a different cycle from those of the past two years and suggests to me that we've entered a different regime.  Using patterns from the recent past to extrapolate into the near-term future is hazardous to our wealth. Wednesday, January 13th *  Tuesday was the first day in which we saw the number of stocks making fresh new lows decline day over day.  To this point, it has been quite a broad