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JADI AKU SEBENTAR SAJA By : JUDIKA Intro : Am F G C F Dm B E Dm Am Am F G C telah lama kau tinggalkanku Dm F Em sempat sia-siakan aku Am F G C pergi jauh titipkan perih Dm E tak sedikitpun peduli Chorus: Am F G C seandainya kamu merasakan F Dm E jadi aku sebentar saja Am F G C takkan sanggup hatimu terima F Dm E sakit ini begitu parah Intro : Am G Dm E Am F G C pergi jauh titipkan perih F Dm E tak sedikitpun peduli Chorus : Am F G C seandainya kamu merasakan F Dm E jadi aku sebentar saja Am F G C takkan sanggup hatimu terima F Dm E sakit ini begitu parah SOlo : Am Dm B/D# E F-E F Am seandainya kamu merasakan F Am jadi aku sebentar saja F Am takan sanggup hatimu terima F E sakit ini begitu parah Chorus : A

SEPERTINYA KAMU By : ZIGAZ Intro : Em D Am G 6x Em C G tak mudah ku tergoda Em C D apalagi jatuh cinta Em C G tapi kok sama kamu C D A tak seperti itu Em C G dasyatnya rayuanmu Em C D mampu menggoda hatiku Em C G rayuanmu itu candu C D A terbang ku melayang Chorus: Em C G sepertinya aku mulai merindukanmu B kamu... Em C G mungkin juga aku mulai menyukaimu B kamu... Em C G kucoba tak peduli Em C D sama kamu dan hatimu Em C G namun dipikiranku C D A lagi-lagi kamu Chorus: Em C G sepertinya aku mulai merindukanmu B kamu... Em C G mungkin juga aku mulai menyukaimu B kamu... C D tak mengerti ooo Em D yang terjadi ooo i'm flying in love Solo : Em Chorus: Em C G sepertinya aku mulai merindukanmu B kamu... Em

DALAM 2 KISAH BY : LYLA intro : C G Em D C G kau takkan terganti Am Em meski menjadi lembaran buram D C di buku hidupku G harusnya berhenti Am Em melukis hati di dalam kelam D kanvas pikiranmu C Am Em D salah ku bersalah C Am Em D C marah dalam dua kisah Chorus : G C maafkanlah tuk segala luka D G yang mendera meleburkan jiwa Em Am sungguh rasaku benar adanya C D G tapi tak bisa ku melepaskan dia C G aku harusnya berhenti Am Em D sedari dulu bermain dengan melukis hatimu C Am Em D salah ku bersalah C Am Em D C marah dalam dua kisah oooo oooo Chorus : G C maafkanlah tuk segala luka D G yang mendera meleburkan jiwa Em Am sungguh rasaku benar adanya C D G tapi tak bisa ku melepas

Photos by  Chatham House  [CC BY 2.0],  Marie Lan-Nguyen  [CC BY 2.0],  wowser  [CC BY-BC 2.0] on Flickr There has been an unusually high number of celebrity deaths this year - so many that I could have built the whole quiz around it! Anyhow, here's my end-of-year offering in its traditional format, focusing on some key news stories of 2016. Like last year, I've tried to keep it light-hearted as much as possible. Politics is still there, but it's fairly evenly balanced by sports, travel and technology news. The quiz comes in two levels: - Intermediate (B1+/2-) - Advanced (B2+ and up) and is accompanied by a 10-page teachers' guide (scroll down) full of ideas on how to use the quiz in class and to exploit the lexis. Don't forget to check back in the first week of the new year when I'll publish a follow up with vocabulary review exercises and activities. UPDATE: Click HERE for vocabulary review activities Happy New Year! Quiz 1. Starting with the sad news of Da

One of my students showed her vocabulary (and grammar) notebook to her private tutor, who was surprised at the way new vocabulary was recorded in it. The student then conveyed the tutor's concerns to me, for example, that "pack in" doesn't have to go necessarily with the job (I'd taught the group "she's packed in her job"). She said, "it means 'finish' or 'give up'". I agreed. But where does it get you? If "pack in" can be substituted for "finish" or one of the other alleged synonyms (alleged because no two or more words are ever absolute synonyms - see  HERE ), can we say "I've packed in my homework"? It is true that "pack in" collocates with other nouns/noun phrases, but "job" is one of the most frequent collocates. I've consulted two dictionaries - I often look up a word in  different online dictionaries to glean its most typical use - and both  Oxford Advanced Le

Join me and many other developers at Droidcon London at the end of October. "Why Droidcon London?," you ask? Great question, thanks for asking! The answer is simple. But because I wanted to write more than six sentences to justify taking up your time reading this, I'm going to take longer to explain. For one thing, there will be developers. Everywhere. Hanging from the rooftop, dangling from the balcony, occupying every seat - nothing but developers, developers, developers. None of these business-blogger types, no management consultants (well,  very few anyway ) peddling their wares; just developers. So the people you talk to are exactly the people you want to connect with; other programmers learning the same stuff to solve the same problems that you have. Also, there are always great technical talks. Developers aren't just in the seats and hanging from the fluorescents; they're up on stage talking about the stuff they know. In many conferences, the people on sta

Based on Adele's song from her third album 25 , this  activity  can be used with Intermediate level and up. The main focus is listening to chunks, followed by discussion of the song and reviewing  the use of like/as. UPDATE (23.7.2019): After consulting Adele's official website  it does seem that the bridge of the song goes It's hard to admit that... and not "It's had to win me back" as previously believed - thank you to my wonderful teacher trainees for pointing it out. The handout and the teacher's notes have been updated accordingly. It's been a while since I posted a song-based activity, so here's one for one of my favourite songs this year. Handout Procedure Activity A (Pre-listening) Play just the second chorus - from 2.58 to 3.51 in the video embedded above. Activity B (Listening) Play the whole song (from 0.42). Students listen and tick the chunks they hear. Allow 1 min to compare the answers in pairs before taking feedback. The answer ke

You have a cross-country trip to take, and it's a must-do trip.  You have to leave immediately and all that are available is a charter plane and your choice of two available pilots.  The first pilot has flown this plane before but has a longstanding negative reputation as being someone who will overcharge you and most likely take you to unannounced stops before (p ossi bly) arriving at your destination.  The second pilot loudly announces how great the ride will be and how dishonest the other pilot is, but has never flown a plane before. Must-do trip. Two pilots. Your choice. Further Reading:  Why Character Matters .

One question active traders too often fail to ask is, "What would I be doing with my life if I weren't trading?" We're familiar with the direct costs of trading, such as the expenses we incur for software, commissions, and the like.  Less clear are the indirect costs--and especially the opportunity costs--associated with trading.  When we're glued to screens, there are many activities we cannot participate in.  Some of those activities may represent areas of strength, ones where we could excel and contribute.   I meet many traders who limp along in their profitability, afraid to ask the big questions, because they not sure what they would do with their lives if they weren't trading.  They justify trading as a "passion", when in fact it's a black hole that has sucked them in so far that they cannot see an alternative future. Is your trading giving you the financial and emotional returns you desire? Are you a better person for your trading, or does

Traders are often concerned that their ideas might fail simply because they have become "too consensus".  That is, if many other participants are positioned in the same idea, the risk/reward may become negatively skewed.  There aren't many traders left to move the position further in the desired direction and, should prices start to move the other way, there can be a stampede for the exits quickly putting positions under water. Sentiment in the stock market is one way of gauging market psychology and whether there may be a bullish or bearish consensus.  Unfortunately, the standard measure for assessing sentiment, the put/call ratio, has several weaknesses.  First, it often mixes together put and call trading for stock index options and for the options on individual equities.  My work shows those are different distributions, with different impacts on markets.  The equity-only put/call measure, where options across all exchanges and all listed issues are included, has been

I recently posted on the importance of identifying who is in the market as a way of gauging how the market is likely to move, tracking the behavior of large institutional participants.  A different way of assessing market participation is by looking at speculative sentiment in the market.  This can be accomplished by looking at total options volume, not just the ratio of put volume to call volume.   When total equity options volume (volume of options trading for stocks listed across all options exchanges) is in its lowest quartile going back to 2014, the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a loss of -.51%.  When total options volume has been in its highest quartile, the next 10 days have averaged a gain of +.91%.  If we strip out the role of total trading volume from total options volume in a regression model, we find that when pure options volume is in its lowest quartile (as was the case after Monday's close), the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a loss of -.41% versus an average

PENANTIAN BERHARGA By : RIZKY FEBIAN Intro : F D7 Gm C 2x F D7 dahulu kita terbiasa Gm C selalu menunggu terus menunggu F D7 berharap datang seseorang Gm C untuk melengkapi kisah hidup ini F D7 terlalu sulit melangkah Gm C tuk temukan yang selalu dinantikan F D7 hingga kita pun berjumpa Gm C tiada lagi alasan untuk menunda Chorus : A# Gm akhirnya kita bersama Am D7 setelah menanti lama A# Gm semoga selalu terjaga Am Dm ahaa wouuu wouuu ..... A# Gm waktu telah berbicara Am D7 menanti tak sia-sia A# Gm karna kau yang kini ada Am Dm ahaa wouuu wouuu..... Gm C sangatlah berharga F D7 bertahan di kesendirian Gm C telah menuntunku menemukanmu F D7 tanpa ragu aku berikan Gm C semua rasa cinta yang tersimpan lama F D7 penantian selama ini

SAAT HUJAN By : FADE2BLACK feat AUDREY TAPIHERU Intro : F C Dm A# F C ku tumbuh berbunga Dm harum dan berwarna A# karena kau hujaniku F C ku tumbuh dewasa Dm dan tambah percaya A# kau hujaniku F aku merangkai banyak hal dari setetes racun C seperti butiran embun di permukaan daun Dm menceritakan banyak hal dari ratusan pantun A# buang pedoman tuk tentukan mana buru mana santun F meskipun jatuh dari angkasa C partikel hydro meteor sentuh bumi basahi jiwa Dm jadi air ini punya tujuan ketika turun A# memberi harapan di setiap tetes mengalun F ini waktu yang tepat untuk kita bertemu C saat air langit menutup jejak rindu Dm basahmu redakan ragam letpuan emosi yang terjebak A# sejak langit lupa akan bumi Dm saat hujan apa kabarmu A# lesu roman bersinar di lidah yang kaku Dm bahagia mengalir di deras air yang turun A# menyamarkan air mata yang t

TraderFeed will be taking a sabbatical during the month of October, with occasional postings on the market and on trading psychology.  During the sabbatical, I'll be finishing a co-edited book on brief therapy and completing a personal project.  That personal project will be a major subject during November's posts. Over the October sabbatical, I'll also provide occasional updates of scores from my multivariate model , which I've revised to include a new measure of sentiment.  That new measure views put volume and call volume as independent variables, rather than simply taking the ratio of the two.  So we look for occasions when put volume is unusually high or low and the same for call volume. Model scores range from +6 (very bullish) to zero (neutral) to -6 (very bearish).  The chart above shows average 10-day returns as a function of model score from 2014 to the present.  Hit rates on trades taken mechanically have been as one would expect from the above chart, with 64

Just thought I'd update this post on what it means for stocks when we see a high degree of institutional participation in the US equity market .  Yesterday's reading was in the highest quartile, which has been associated with significantly above average returns over a next 10-day period.  Interestingly, we also saw an elevated equity put/call ratio, also associated with favorable next 10-day returns in SPY. Meanwhile, several of my cycle measures have been pretty toppy.   There are times when things line up and there are times when they don't line up.  A useful psychological exercise is to assume that, at some point, everything will line up.  What would you need to see for such a line-up to occur?  Anticipating potential price paths is a first step in preparing to trade them.  Being aware of when things aren't lining up is a great way to avoid overtrading. Further Reading:  When to Exit Winning Trades .

Above we can see SPY (blue line) plotted against a six-variable trading model that I developed using ensemble modeling .  When we have a positive score, the model is deemed to be bullish over a next 10-day horizon.  When we have a negative score, the model is deemed to be bearish.  The model is flat as of yesterday's close.  The model includes such variables as market volatility, breadth, buying/selling participation, and market cycle status.   When the model has been at a score of +2 or higher, the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a gain of +2.08%.  When the model has been at a score of -3 or lower, the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a loss of -.83%.  Between scores of +1 and -2, the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a small loss of -.08%.   The model has a couple of important implications for trading psychology: 1)  Out of the 573 days of my in-sample and out-of-sample periods, nearly half are scores less than +2 and greater than -3:  in other words, days with essentially no

SELINGKUH By : REPUBLIK Intro : A E F#m D 3x E sejak engkau tinggalkan aku D A kau berpaling kepadanya E kau katakan pada diriku D A hanya ada cintamu E ku ingin engkau tak begitu D A kembalilah kepadaku E apa saja yang engkau mau D D E ku lakukan untukmu D E dan kau tetap selingkuh Chorus : A E F#m kau selalu selingkuh di depan mataku D kau selalu selingkuh di depan mataku A E F#m kau tak punya malu permainkan hatiku D selalu dan selalu oh tak punya malu Int : A E F#m D A E F#m D kau cantik tapi kau bukan yang terbaik A E F#m D nyatanya aku termakan semua rayuanmu D E D E aaaa dan kau tetap selingkuh Chorus : A E F#m kau selalu selingkuh di depan mataku

AKHIR BULAN By : KUNTO AJI CMaj7 Dm7 CMaj7 Dm7 selalu seperti ini berjalan CMaj7 Dm7 CMaj7 Dm7 derita paska senang-senang Am D7 Am aku dan keinginanku F Fm di atas kebutuhan CMaj7 Dm7 CMaj7 Dm7 munkin kerasnya kehidupanmu CMaj7 Dm7 CMaj7 Dm7 kerasnya arus pergaulan Am D7 Am aku dan keinginanku F Fm di atas kebutuhan CMaj7 hidup di akhir bulan Fm A#7 CMaj7 dengan teman mie instan Fm A#7 CMaj7 hidup di akhir bulan FM A#7 CMaj7 Fm A#7 aku harus bertahan Am D7 Am aku dan keinginanku A#7 di atas kebutuhan Int : CMaj7 F#m6 Fm6 4x CMaj7 hidup di akhir bulan Fm A#7 CMaj7 dengan teman mie instan Fm A#7 CMaj7 hidup di akhir bulan FM A#7 CMaj7 Fm A#7 aku harus bertahan CMaj7 Fm A#7 CMaj7 (hidupku hanya rotasi) takkan berkesudahan Fm A#

DIBAWA HAPPY AJA By : REGINA Intro : F Gm Dm C F Gm hallo pagi yang indah Dm C dengarkanlah sebentar saja F Gm sudah ku rencanakan Dm C hari ini aku yang punya A# Dm C takkan ku terganggu A# Dm C takkan ku mengeluh A Dm C A# masih banyak cinta Chorus : F Gm Dm C biarkan ku menari F Gm Dm C di bawah indahnya pelangi F Gm Dm C bahagia ku sederhana Gm Am A# Dm C bisa tertawa bebas dan lepas F Gm Dm C biarkan ku bernyanyi F Gm Dm C dan menikmati hidup ini F Gm Dm C karena waktu tak terganti Gm Am A# Dm C oo happy aja happy aja (dibawa happy aja) Int : A# Am Gm F A# Am D# Chorus : F Gm Dm C biarkan ku menari F Gm Dm C di bawah indahnya pelangi F Gm Dm C bahagia ku sederhana Gm Am A# Dm C bisa tertawa bebas dan lepas F Gm Dm C biarkan ku bernyanyi F Gm

I STILL LOVE YOU By : RAYEN PONO Intro : G Bm C Cm D G C kau kirimkan pesan singkatmu D G apakah kau baik-baik saja Em C jujur menetes air mataku Cm D karena ku tak sanggup jujur G C andai kamu ada waktu itu D G waktu ku hancur melepaskanmu Em D C pasti kamu mengerti mengapa Cm D tak pernah kau mampu menggantikamu Chorus : G D/F# Em Rindu tapi tak bisa bertemu Am G D cinta tapi tak bisa bersama G B Em ingin lupa tapi ku sulit melupakan D Am D ingin berlari tapi tak mampu pergi Int : G Bm C Cm D G C andai kamu ada waktu itu D G waktu ku hancur melepaskanmu Em D C pasti kamu mengerti mengapa Cm D tak pernah kau mampu menggantikamu Chorus : G D/F# Em Rindu tapi tak bisa berte

There are risk-averse traders who never make significant money.  There are risk-seeking traders who blow up.  Then there are smart traders who take calculated risks.  They make selective bets.  Like the skilled poker player, they know when they have a good hand and they know how and when to bet that hand. But to take calculated risks, you have to know how much risk you're truly taking.  Several factors impact the risks in your trading: *  The sizing of your positions - It's not uncommon for small traders to have big dreams and take positions that are unusually large for the amounts of capital they're trading.  Any trader can experience strings of losing trades merely by chance.  When position sizes are too large, those strings of losers incur a risk of ruin.  Once you're down 50%, it takes a doubling of remaining capital just to return to break even.   *  The volatility of your markets - Volatility can change dramatically from day to day, week to week, depending on th

One take on trading psychology says that we should control our emotional experience so that we stick to our processes and our discipline. Another take on trading psychology says that we should become better at listening to the feelings that represent intuition and gut feel for markets. This recent article, however, suggests a different approach altogether :  we become able to see and trade markets better when we can make mind shifts that allow us to experience markets differently . Like a car, we can make a mind shift by changing gears, allowing us to approach the world with more torque, greater intensity. Also like a car, we can achieve a mind shift by changing lanes, opening a new path. The key idea of the article is that what we see and what we can act upon is a function, not only of the information we process, but also the state we're in.  When we achieve a mind shift, we not only can process new information, but become better at processing old information in new ways. In short

When assessing the market, I find it helpful to treat strength and weakness as independent variables.  In other words, we can have markets in which many stocks are strong and few weak; many weak and few strong; few strong and few weak; and many strong and many weak.  The latter is possible when correlations among sectors and stocks are relatively low. Let's take the Parabolic SAR indicator system developed by Wilder.  One way I track market strength and weakness is to take a cumulative running total of Parabolic SAR buy signals minus sell signals for all NYSE issues (red line, above).  This has been helpful in capturing cyclical behavior in SPY (blue line). (Raw data from StockCharts.com ).   But we can also consider the buy signals from the system separately from the sell signals as proxies for market strength and weakness.  For example, since mid-2014, when I first began collecting these data, when we divide the sample into quartiles, we find that, after a single day of many new

There are those that follow their hearts when they trade. There are those that lead with their brains. One trades based upon seeing patterns play out in real time and having a feeling for those patterns. The other trades based upon analyses and having an understanding of how markets should respond. Both styles require an ability to tune out noise and focus on what is important.  Both styles require an ability to act on the information being processed. When we don't see opportunities, it can be tempting to look to others for answers: to see what patterns they are noticing, to check out their analyses.  At that point, we become externally focused, no longer attuned to our own information processing strengths. In challenging times, the challenge is to double down on our strengths and become more of who we already are at our best .  Looking outside ourselves for answers is the surest strategy for turning drawdowns into slumps. Further Reading:  The Two Brains of Trading .