Humor4u

Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly Temperatures have been rising fast in March 2023. The image below shows the Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on Jan.1850-Mar.2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on Oct.2010-Mar.2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Anomalies are versus 1901-2000 (not versus pre-industrial).  Could it be possible for the temperature to keep following the magenta trend? Let's have a look at how dire the situation is. Greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising Reducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the aerosol masking effect, a loss that causes a rise in temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post . Yet, despite pledges by politicians, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere keep r...

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached an average daily concentration of 422.06 ppm on April 26, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Furthermore, very high methane  (CH₄) concentrations were recorded recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, with surface flask readings appearing to be as high as 1955 ppb.   Clouds tipping point A methane concentration of 1955 ppb corresponds, at a  Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200 , with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 391 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 422.06 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 813.06 ppm, i.e. less than 387 ppm away from the clouds tipping point  (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C. Such a 387 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts ...

Ocean heat is at record levels. As a result, global sea ice extent was only 16.23 million km² on February 9, 2022, the third lowest extent on record. What makes this even more worrying is that we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña. Antarctic sea ice at lowest  extent on record since start satellite measurements Ocean heat is a huge threat for Antarctica at the moment. The image below shows that Antarctic sea ice extent was only 2.091 million km² on February 16, 2022, the lowest on record since the start of satellite measurements. Ocean heat is reducing the sea ice around Antarctica and is getting underneath floating sea ice.  The Thwaites Glacier, which is on a retrograde slope, is especially vulnerable to collapse.  The Thwaites Glacier contains enough ice to raise global sea levels  by 65 cm  (25.59 inches)   if it were to completely collapse. The animation on the right, created with images from  Climate Reanalyzer , shows th...

The NASA image below shows the October 2021 temperature anomaly. The Arctic is heating up enormously, with anomalies showing up of up to 9.1°C.  The image below shows that the global temperature over the past century, i.e. from 1920 to 2020, has risen by 1.3°C. The image shows anomalies from 1900-1920. When adjusting data to reflect a pre-industrial base, ocean air (2m) temperatures and higher polar anomalies, temperatures may have crossed 2°C long ago. The image below shows two trends, based on NASA 1880-October 2021 data, adjusted to reflect a pre-industrial base, ocean air (2m) temperatures and higher polar anomalies. The linear trend (green) misses the point that the temperature rise is accelerating. The polynomial trend (black) shows the potential for 3°C to be crossed by 2026. Acceleration of the temperature rise may speed up further soon, for a number of reasons: Aerosols: As cleaner alternatives become more economic, and as calls for cleaner air become stronger,...