Skip to main content

Arctic sea ice under threat - update 2

The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice in a poor condition on June 16, 2023, all the way up to the North Pole (on the bottom left of the image below). There is open water near the Franz Josef Archipelago, some 1000 km from the North Pole (on the right side of the image below). Clouds prevent a clearer view of the sea ice.




The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 15, 2023.




The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo, while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.


Furthermore, the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, threatening to result in heatwaves that extend over the Arctic Ocean and that cause hot water from rivers to enter the Arctic Ocean, while storms accelerate the flow of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, and while fires and storms contribute to darkening of the sea ice, speeding up its demise.



All this threatens to trigger eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.



[ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

[ see the Extinction page ]
Loss of Arctic sea ice albedo, loss of the latent heat buffer and eruption of seafloor methane all constitute tipping points that threaten to abruptly accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic, further speeding up loss of permafrost in Siberia and North America and thus threatening to trigger further releases of greenhouse gases.


In addition, there are further events and developments that could unfold and make things even worse.





The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be of such a severity that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Without these cooling aerosols, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires. Furthermore, as traffic slows down, there will be less nitrogen oxide emissions, which could result in less hydroxyl to curtail methane.



The bar on the right depicts the threat, as discussed at the Extinction page.



In conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for support for a Climate Emergency Declaration.




Links



• Arctic sea ice under threat - update 1




• NOAA - The National Centers for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Version 2  





• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Diagnostic Discussions

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml


• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start


• NASA Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov




Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Austerity-A Fancy Word for Destitute.

The reason for this post is not for the folks who have been caught in the first wave of personal economic hard reality, but the next wave. Regardless of the optimism espoused by grinning leaders and sycophant press, we are entering the final stage of global economic collapse. It began in 2008 and was forestalled for five years with fudge putty, but the weight of global indebtedness cannot be propped any longer and the final crunch is imminent. Austerity measures herald the final throes.  Indications of coming austerity.   Austerity measures are the final last ditch effort, futile or not! Back in the day many of us old-timers went through periods of "hard-times". In retrospect I realize there is no comparison to yesteryear hard times and today's version. Back then, expectations were never very high for the working class, there were no sophisticated systems or conveniences anyway. In fact the difference between being "set" or not was about having treats or not. Si...
Post a Comment
Read more

Terrifying Arctic methane levels

A peak methane level of 3026 ppb was recorded by the MetOp-B satellite at 469 mb on December 11, 2021 am. This follows a peak methane level of  3644 ppb  recorded by the MetOp-B satellite at 367 mb on November 21, 2021, pm. A peak methane level of 2716 ppb was recorded by the MetOp-B satellite at 586 mb on December 11, 2021, pm, as above image shows. This image is possibly even more terrifying than the image at the top, as above image shows that at 586 mb, i.e. much closer to sea level, almost all methane shows up over sea, rather than over land, supporting the possibility of large methane eruptions from the seafloor, especially in the Arctic.  Also, the image was recorded later than the image at the top with the 3026 ppb peak, indicating that even more methane may be on the way. This appears to be confirmed by the Copernicus forecast for December 12, 2021, 03 UTC, as illustrated by the image below, which shows methane at 500 hPa (equivalent to 500 mb). Furthermore, ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Women and children overboard

It's the  Catch-22  of clinical trials: to protect pregnant women and children from the risks of untested drugs....we don't test drugs adequately for them. In the last few decades , we've been more concerned about the harms of research than of inadequately tested treatments for everyone, in fact. But for "vulnerable populations,"  like pregnant women and children, the default was to exclude them. And just in case any women might be, or might become, pregnant, it was often easier just to exclude us all from trials. It got so bad, that by the late 1990s, the FDA realized regulations and more for pregnant women - and women generally - had to change. The NIH (National Institutes of Health) took action too. And so few drugs had enough safety and efficacy information for children that, even in official circles, children were being called "therapeutic orphans."  Action began on that, too. There is still a long way to go. But this month there was a sign that ...
Post a Comment
Read more