When dogs howl at night, it's not the full moon that sets them off. Dogs are communicating for all sorts of reasons. We're just not all that good at understanding what they're saying. We make so many mistakes about attributing cause and effect for so many reasons , that it's almost surprising we get it right as often as we do. But all those mistaken beliefs we realize we have, don't seem to teach us a lesson. Pretty soon after catching ourselves out, we're at it again, taking mental shortcuts, being cognitive misers . It's so pervasive, you would think we would know this about ourselves, at least, even if we don't understand dogs. Yet we commonly under-estimate how much bias is affecting our beliefs. That's been dubbed the bias blind spot that we (allegedly) tend to live in. Even taking all that into account, "effect" is an astonishingly over-used word, especially in research and science communication where you would hope people would ...