Humor4u

Just thought I'd update this post on what it means for stocks when we see a high degree of institutional participation in the US equity market .  Yesterday's reading was in the highest quartile, which has been associated with significantly above average returns over a next 10-day period.  Interestingly, we also saw an elevated equity put/call ratio, also associated with favorable next 10-day returns in SPY. Meanwhile, several of my cycle measures have been pretty toppy.   There are times when things line up and there are times when they don't line up.  A useful psychological exercise is to assume that, at some point, everything will line up.  What would you need to see for such a line-up to occur?  Anticipating potential price paths is a first step in preparing to trade them.  Being aware of when things aren't lining up is a great way to avoid overtrading. Further Reading:  When to Exit Winning Trades .

Above we can see SPY (blue line) plotted against a six-variable trading model that I developed using ensemble modeling .  When we have a positive score, the model is deemed to be bullish over a next 10-day horizon.  When we have a negative score, the model is deemed to be bearish.  The model is flat as of yesterday's close.  The model includes such variables as market volatility, breadth, buying/selling participation, and market cycle status.   When the model has been at a score of +2 or higher, the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a gain of +2.08%.  When the model has been at a score of -3 or lower, the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a loss of -.83%.  Between scores of +1 and -2, the next 10 days in SPY have averaged a small loss of -.08%.   The model has a couple of important implications for trading psychology: 1)  Out of the 573 days of my in-sample and out-of-sample periods, nearly half are scores less than +2 and greater than -...

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There are risk-averse traders who never make significant money.  There are risk-seeking traders who blow up.  Then there are smart traders who take calculated risks.  They make selective bets.  Like the skilled poker player, they know when they have a good hand and they know how and when to bet that hand. But to take calculated risks, you have to know how much risk you're truly taking.  Several factors impact the risks in your trading: *  The sizing of your positions - It's not uncommon for small traders to have big dreams and take positions that are unusually large for the amounts of capital they're trading.  Any trader can experience strings of losing trades merely by chance.  When position sizes are too large, those strings of losers incur a risk of ruin.  Once you're down 50%, it takes a doubling of remaining capital just to return to break even.   *  The volatility of your markets - Volatility can change dramatically fro...