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Global temperature rise The image below illustrates the threat that the temperature rise may exceed 3°C. The blue trend, based on January 1880 to March 2023 data, shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2036. The magenta trend, based on January 2010 to March 2023 data, better reflects relatively short-term variables such as El Niño and illustrates how 3°C could be crossed as early as in 2025. The above image uses monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature anomalies versus 1886-1915  that are further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base , as also illustrated by the image below.  What could cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C in 2025? This has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one . Briefly, such a rise could be triggered by relatively short-term variables such as the upcoming El Niño, high sunspots and extra water vapor in the atmosphere due to the eruption of a submarine volcano. Together, they could raise temp...

September 2021 was the second warmest September on record, after September 2020, according to NASA, Copernicus and James Hansen , despite the cooling effect of the current La Niña. Above NASA map shows that the Arctic Ocean was hit severely by high temperatures. The NASA map shows an anomaly of 0.96°C compared to 1951-1980. With COP26 to be held in Glasgow, from October 31 to November 12, 2021, it's important to realize that using the period from 1951 to 1980 as a base is not the same as pre-industrial. So, how much has the temperature risen from pre-industrial and what are the prospects? Will COP26 deliver? [ from earlier post ] Let's do the calculations once more. The trend in the image below indicates that the NASA data need to be adjusted by 0.29°C to change the base from 1951-1980 to 1900.  Of course, 1900 is still not pre-industrial. The chart below shows three trends: The green trend is based on unadjusted NASA data (1951-1980 base).  The lilac...

by Andrew Glikson Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and comprehensive summaries of the peer-reviewed literature raise questions regarding the assumptions inherent in computer modelling of future climate changes, including the supposed linearity of future global temperature trends (Figure 1). Figure 1. Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from various lines of evidence.  IPCC Computer modelling does not necessarily capture the sensitivity, complexity and feedbacks of the atmosphere-ocean-land system as observed from paleoclimate studies. Underlying published IPCC computer models appears to be an assumption of mostly gradual or linear responses of the atmosphere to compositional variations. This overlooks self-amplifying effects and transient reversals associated with melting of the ice sheets.  Leading paleoclimate scientists have issued warnings regarding the high sensitivity ...