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The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice on June 29, 2023, with the North Pole on the left.  The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 28, 2023. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo , while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.5°C on June 28, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.6°C on June 28, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on Sept. 4, 2022, even while La Niña was suppressing the temperature. This time, there's an El Niño.  The image below, adapted from NOAA , shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream on June 25, 2023, while ...

High Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is forecast to hit the Southeastern United States over the next few days. The image below shows a forecast for June 29, 2023, 18 UTC with WBGT as high as 34°C (93°F) forecast for a location near Jackson, Mississippi, of WBGT up to 34°C (93°F).  [ click on images to enlarge ] WBGT is a measure used by weather.gov to warn about expected heat stress when in direct sunlight. It estimates the effect of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation on humans using a combination of temperatures from three thermometers:  A Wet bulb measures the temperature read by a thermometer covered in a wet cloth. As water evaporates from the cloth, evaporation cools the thermometer. This mirrors how the human body cools itself with sweat. A black globe is used to measure solar radiation. Solar radiation heats the globe and wind blowing across it cools the globe. A Dry bulb calculates the air temperature measured in the shade. It is the tem...

The image below, created by Eliot Jacobson , shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly through June 20, 2023 (versus 1982-2023 mean). The image below, created by  Eliot Jacobson , shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on June 21, for the years 1982-2023. The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.3°C on June 21, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.4°C on June 21, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on September 4, 2022, even while La Niña then was suppressing the temperature, whereas now there's an El Niño. [ click on images to enlarge ] Global sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on June 23, 2023, i.e. only 21.57 million km², as illustrated by the image below. [ click on images to enlarge ] Contributing to this is very low Antarctic sea ice extent. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent up to June 23, 2023. Values in the column on the left are...

The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice in a poor condition on June 16, 2023, all the way up to the North Pole (on the bottom left of the image below). There is open water near the Franz Josef Archipelago, some 1000 km from the North Pole (on the right side of the image below). Clouds prevent a clearer view of the sea ice. The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 15, 2023. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo , while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, threatening to result in heatwaves that extend over the Arctic Ocean and that cause hot water from rivers to enter the Arctic Ocean, while storms accelerate the flow of ocean heat in...

Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly Temperatures have been rising fast in March 2023. The image below shows the Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on Jan.1850-Mar.2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on Oct.2010-Mar.2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Anomalies are versus 1901-2000 (not versus pre-industrial).  Could it be possible for the temperature to keep following the magenta trend? Let's have a look at how dire the situation is. Greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising Reducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the aerosol masking effect, a loss that causes a rise in temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post . Yet, despite pledges by politicians, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere keep r...

Sea Ice Extent Arctic sea ice extent has fallen strongly in June 2022. On June 22, 2022, Arctic sea ice extent was among the lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from the National Snow and Ice Data Center ( NSIDC Chartic ).  The image below, from an animation by Zachary Labe, shows Arctic sea ice extent up to June 20, 2022, based on Vishop data . The yellow line is the year 2022. The white line shows extent for the year 2012, when it reached a record minimum in September. The blue line shows extent the year 2020, when the minimum in September was second lowest.   The image below, adapted from Vishop , shows that on June 23, 2022, global sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year. La Niña [ adapted from NOAA - click on images to enlarge ] The fact that sea ice is so low for the time of the year is the more striking as we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses the temperature rise. El ...