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The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice on June 29, 2023, with the North Pole on the left.  The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 28, 2023. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo , while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.5°C on June 28, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.6°C on June 28, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on Sept. 4, 2022, even while La Niña was suppressing the temperature. This time, there's an El Niño.  The image below, adapted from NOAA , shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream on June 25, 2023, while ...

The image below, created by Eliot Jacobson , shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly through June 20, 2023 (versus 1982-2023 mean). The image below, created by  Eliot Jacobson , shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on June 21, for the years 1982-2023. The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.3°C on June 21, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.4°C on June 21, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on September 4, 2022, even while La Niña then was suppressing the temperature, whereas now there's an El Niño. [ click on images to enlarge ] Global sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on June 23, 2023, i.e. only 21.57 million km², as illustrated by the image below. [ click on images to enlarge ] Contributing to this is very low Antarctic sea ice extent. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent up to June 23, 2023. Values in the column on the left are...

The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice in a poor condition on June 16, 2023, all the way up to the North Pole (on the bottom left of the image below). There is open water near the Franz Josef Archipelago, some 1000 km from the North Pole (on the right side of the image below). Clouds prevent a clearer view of the sea ice. The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 15, 2023. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo , while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, threatening to result in heatwaves that extend over the Arctic Ocean and that cause hot water from rivers to enter the Arctic Ocean, while storms accelerate the flow of ocean heat in...

Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly Temperatures have been rising fast in March 2023. The image below shows the Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on Jan.1850-Mar.2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on Oct.2010-Mar.2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Anomalies are versus 1901-2000 (not versus pre-industrial).  Could it be possible for the temperature to keep following the magenta trend? Let's have a look at how dire the situation is. Greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising Reducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the aerosol masking effect, a loss that causes a rise in temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post . Yet, despite pledges by politicians, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere keep r...

Earlier this year, on February 25, Antarctic sea ice extent was at an all-time record low of 1.924 million km², as the above image shows. Throughout the year, Antarctic sea ice extent has been low. On December 14, 2022, Antarctic sea ice was merely 9.864 million km² in extent. Only in 2016 was Antarctic sea ice extent lower at that time of year, and - importantly - 2016 was a strong El Niño year. The NOAA image on the right indicates that, while we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña, the next El Niño looks set to strike soon. Meanwhile, ocean heat content keeps rising due to high levels of greenhouse gases, as illustrated by the image on the right.  Rising ocean heat causes sea ice to melt from below, resulting in less sea ice, which in turn means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and more sunlight gets absorbed as heat in the ocean, making it a self-reinforcing feedback loop that further speeds up sea ice loss.  The currently very rapid decline...

Are politicians for sale?   How can it be measured whether politicians are for sale and to what extent this occurs?  One measure of how much looters and polluters are buying politicians could be this: How fast is methane accelerating?  Rise in methane and rise in temperature The rise in methane is vitally important, given methane's potential to rapidly push up temperatures.  Arguably the most important metric related to climate change is surface temperature on land, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post . The image was created with a July 16, 2022 screenshot from NASA customized analysis plots and shows that the February 2016 (land only) anomaly from 1886-1915 was 2.94°C or 5.292°F. Extinction Land-only anomalies are important. After all, most people live on land, where temperatures are rising even faster than they are rising globally, and humans will likely go extinct with a rise of 3°C above pre-industrial , as illustrated by the image below,...

The upcoming El Niño The above image shows a forecast for August 2023 of the sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, from tropicaltidbits.com . The forecast shows temperatures that are higher than average (based on 1984-2009 model climatology) for the tropical Pacific region indicative of an  El Niño  event.  By contrast, the above forecast for November 2022 shows temperatures in the tropical Pacific region that are much lower than average, indicating that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña.  By comparison, the above nullschool.net image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly for August 15, 2022, i.e. less than three months ago, when sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific region were similar to what they are now, while anomalies in the Arctic were much higher than they are now. Moving from the bottom of the current La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as i...