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Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023, an all-time low in the NSIDC record. Antarctic sea ice area was 1,050,708 km² on February 22, 2023, as illustrated by the Nico Sun image below. This means that a huge amount of heat that was previously reflected back into space by the sea ice is now instead absorbed by the Southern Ocean, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that results in further sea ice loss, in turn further speeding up the temperature rise and making the weather ever more extreme. Arctic sea ice extent was 14,271,000 km² on February 19, 2023, the third-lowest extent in the NSIDC record for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image. Global sea ice extent reached a record low of 15,500,000 km² on February 11, 2023, as illustrated by the above image. The situation is dire The dire situation is further illustrated by the image below, showing high sea surface temperature anomalies (from 1...

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks.  The image below uses ERA5 data, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on 1940-2022 data, points at 3°C rise by 2044. The purple trend, based on 2008-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and shows that this could trigger a rise of as much as 3°C by 2025, as further discussed below. Note that anomalies are from 1850-1900, which isn't pre-industrial. The upcoming El Niño Temperatures are currently suppressed as we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post . The blue line added in the image highlights an increase in peak ONI (strong El Niños) over the years.  The above image was created using data up to September 2022. La Niñ...

Blue Ocean Event [ from Blue Ocean Event ] A Blue Ocean Event occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean). According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km². The image on the right shows a trend pointing at zero Arctic sea ice volume by September 2027. Note that the volume data in the image are averages for the month September ⁠— the minimum for each year is even lower. Furthermore, since zero volume implies zero extent, this indicates that a Blue Ocean Event (extent below 1 million km²) could happen well before 2027. Sea ice extent The image below, adapted from NSIDC , shows the extent of Arctic sea ice on July 26, 2022.  [ click on images to enlarge ] The extent of Arctic sea ice was among the lowest on record for the time of year on July 26, 2022. Furthermore, Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image ...