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The NASA Worldview satellite image below shows Arctic sea ice on June 18, 2023. While the sea ice on much of the picture is shrouded in clouds, Arctic sea ice clearly is in a poor condition, even close to the North Pole (on the bottom left of the image below).  The Uni of Bremen image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 18, 2023. The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens, there will be massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with water in the Arctic Ocean heating up strongly due to loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo , while huge amounts of ocean heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.1°C on June 18, 2023 (on the black line), 0.8°C higher than the 22.3°C on June 18, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on Sept. 4, 2022, even while La Niña was suppressing the temperature. This time, there's an El N...

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go? The above image is from a recent analysis by Karina von Schuckmann et al. and shows that the Earth is heating up, as outgoing radiation is suppressed. More and more extra heat is kept captive on Earth and gets stored mainly in oceans (89%), with smaller proportions getting stored on land (6-5%), in the cryosphere (4%) and in the atmosphere (1-2%). The image also shows another change: 1% more heat gets stored in the atmosphere while 1% less gets stored on land for the period going back to 1971, compared to the period going back to 2006. What could cause that change? Most heat on land is stored in the ground (90 %), with inland water bodies accounting for 0.7 % and permafrost thawing accounting for 9 %. This raises fears that water that was previously present in the ground, is increasingly moving into the atmosphere, as a warming atmosphere holds more water vapor ( 7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming ). An ...

Global temperature rise The image below illustrates the threat that the temperature rise may exceed 3°C. The blue trend, based on January 1880 to March 2023 data, shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2036. The magenta trend, based on January 2010 to March 2023 data, better reflects relatively short-term variables such as El Niño and illustrates how 3°C could be crossed as early as in 2025. The above image uses monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature anomalies versus 1886-1915  that are further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base , as also illustrated by the image below.  What could cause the temperature rise to cross 3°C in 2025? This has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one . Briefly, such a rise could be triggered by relatively short-term variables such as the upcoming El Niño, high sunspots and extra water vapor in the atmosphere due to the eruption of a submarine volcano. Together, they could raise temp...