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Showing posts with the label GWP

Methane keeps rising

WMO Report on Greenhouse Gases  In 2020 and 2021, the global network of the  World Meteorological Organization  (WMO) detected the largest within-year increases (15 and 18 ppb, respectively) of atmospheric methane (CH₄) since systematic measurements began in the early 1980s.  [ IPCC/WMO data through 2021 ] The image on the right illustrates methane's rise, showing IPCC and, more recently, WMO data. Methane reached 1908 parts per billion (ppb) in 2021, 262% of the 1750 level, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached 415.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2021, 149% of the 1750 level, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached 334.5 ppb, 124% of the 1750 level.  The WMO adds that analyses of measurements of the abundances of atmospheric CH₄ and its stable carbon isotope ratio ¹³C/¹²C (reported as δ¹³C(CH₄)) indicate that the increase in CH₄ since 2007 is associated with biogenic processes. Methane's rise has been accelerating since 2007, which makes this a scary sugg...

Shortcomings of IPCC AR6 WGIII - Mitigation of Climate Change

In the video below,  U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres comments on the launch of the  IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM Mitigation  report.  [ U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres ] The  report has severe shortcomings, including:  The IPCC makes it look as if the temperature rise could be restricted to 1.5°C above pre-industrial and insists there was a carbon budget left, to be divided by using monetary analysis.  This narrative results in a failure to highlight in the SPM some key drivers of change (such as heat pumps in buildings and air taxis in transport) and in inappropriately referring to such key drivers of change as 'options', while failing to mention the best policies to achieve the necessary changes, i.e. through local feebates. The agenda behind this narrative becomes further evident in phrases such as “CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing stranded assets” and “oil and gas assets are projected to be more at risk of being stran...

Confirm Methane's Importance

Agriculture, land use and forestry responsible for half of people's greenhouse gases emissions? The image on the right updates an image from an earlier post , illustrating the difference between using a Gobal Warming Potential (GWP) for methane of 150 over a few years versus 28 over 100 years. The IPCC in its special report Climate Change and Land  assessed the impact of AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use) versus the impact of fossil fuel, etc., by using a GWP for methane of 28 over 100 years, referring to AR5, an earlier IPCC report.  Since AR5 was published, a study found methane's 100-year GWP to be 14% higher than the IPCC value. The image on the right therefore uses a short-term GWP for methane of 171 in the panel on the right-hand side, 14% higher than the 150 used earlier. When using this 171 GWP for methane and when including pre- and post-production activities in the food system, AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use) causes about half o...

IPCC Report Climate Change and Land

The IPCC has just issued a special report Climate Change and Land , on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. In its new report 'Climate Change and Land', the IPCC finds that vegan is the best diet to reduce emissions. Sadly, it is yet another missed opportunity to show some integrity. [ click on image to enlarge ] Indeed, little or nothing will change as long as the IPCC keeps downplaying the dire situation we're in. As an example, the IPCC Report uses a very low value of 28 as Global Warming Potential (GWP) for methane, which is totally inappropriate and unacceptable given the rapidity at which the biosphere is deteriorating, given the accelerating pace at which extreme weather events are striking the land all around the world, and given the grim prospects for people worldwide in the absence of rapid and radical change. The report finds that agriculture, forestry a...